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  1. #26

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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt J View Post
    There are still some decent cars out there, they're just not going to be American makes. My new company car is a Subaru Legacy, the thing looks decent, is very comfortable, handles well, runs great, has a functional rear seat situation and a big trunk. It's loaded with electronics like dynamic cruise control that adjusts to traffic in front, automatic braking, lane assistance, etc. The backup camera is one of the best I've seen. It's made in the USA and comes loaded with pretty much everything but leather seats and a moonroof for well under $30k.

    The main point of the story isn't that Ford isn't making cars anymore, just that they're not making and selling them in the US. They'll still make cars as Europe and most of Asia aren't interested in huge lumbering truck-cars and need efficiency as fuel is $6/gallon over there. It's just that when the pendulum swings back on gas prices, and it will, all of those cars will be produced overseas and imported to the US instead of made here.
    Buying a foreign car is not an acceptable solution. But it's certainly what all the people that buy Ford cars now that aren't brand loyal are going to do! But apparently Hackett would say, if they're not truck buyers, WE DON'T WANT 'EM!! Those 210,000 people that bought Fusions last year and might want another one in the future can go #$%& themselves!

    And yes, I am very jealous of the recent Cadillac sedans. Maybe Ford could have Lincoln be Sedan HQ if they don't want to sell Ford sedans. They can charge a little more for them, making them more profitable... But will they? You know they won't. They've messed that all up with the Continental. I have to say though, I would't mind having one of those 400hp MKZs... When the lease is up on the T-Connect, I'm going to take a hard look at what's out there used. Maybe we'll find an MKZ or Focus ST that fits the bill. I am HIGHLY motivated not to give Ford the satisfaction of leasing another new car if they're not going to offer me any sedans. As for our Fusion, it's the last of it's kind (manual), so we're pretty much keeping it. It's a dang nice car, and we like it.
    Brad

    '79 Mercury Zephyr ES 5.0L GT40 EFI T-5 (Mustang LWB)
    '17 Ford Transit Connect Titanium LWB
    '14 Ford Fusion SE Manual

  2. #27
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    I myself have had nothing but Fords since my '81 Capri black Magic and '81 Escort in 1989 but last year had to buy an import to replace our 2007 Focus ZX3 as Ford no longer offers a 2-door other than the Mustang which I already own. I find it strange that Ford and most other auto makers offer over a half-dozen
    SUV models. Around here it's quite clear that the V-8, manual transmission & rear-Wheel drive are all facing extinction. In the past 5 yrs. the electric/hybrid market has easily doubled/tripled and I Wonder what we'll see on our roads in the next 10 yrs.

    I keep thinking back to a scene in my favorite Mad Max movie where they show Max his new "INTERCEPTOR" in the police station basement and the phrase
    " the last of the great V-8's" is proclaimed. Is that what folks will say to us in 10 years from now?

  3. #28
    FEP Super Member gr79's Avatar
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    Its obvious what used to make an average car that did the job:
    Choice of 2 or 4 doors.
    Rear wheel drive, solid axle.
    Styling overall acceptable to the eye, blending unique clues or trends for variety.
    Good visibility all around. No tints.
    Good ground clearance to make it thru most everywhere.
    Wide choice of options: colors, trim, engines. Small packages offered.
    Low starting price. Relatively Simple reliable designs. Repairable. Flexible.
    Could be light or heavy. Low or high hp.

    Truck and suv have some of these characteristics, suv being a bloated form of a car.
    Car, suv need computed aids installed to make up for major design flaws.
    Cars now sit too low to navigate, say snow. Too crowded inside, bad visibility.
    Hyped FWD has more negatives than positives for the consumer. Easier to manufacture.
    Most drivers don't care or dont know better. Gets them from point a to b.

    Designed, engineered, built by imperfect, variable, analog human brains.
    Computers, robots, have added unwarranted, undesirable, tremendous costs to everything.
    A lot of input creates data needing a lot of work to transform into something useful.
    A lot of input is needed to set up and to simply keep things running.
    Networking is very time consuming. Especially in businesses. Machinery and robots are networked.
    Phones, personal computers are simple examples. Lots of trial and error.

    Mandatory govt regulations have a lot to do with all this crap.
    The more there are to make things safer, cleaner, the worse it has gotten.
    Have been responsible for the huge rise in cost of transportation.
    As has health care in and auto insurance coverage for them.
    What used to be small costs now are huge chunks and rising.

    So something has to be cut. But why give up on a once simple product: the car?
    Last edited by gr79; 04-29-2018 at 03:13 PM.

  4. #29
    FEP Super Member gr79's Avatar
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    New cars are too ahead of their time, but no alternative.

    Last traditional cars, like the Panther chassis, are nice cars.
    Especially the Marauder or CV Sport versions.
    Most people thumb the nose up on them as too simple.
    Until they drive one. While they can.

    Lot of young people like old classic cars. Why?
    How many people would rather have a decent car from the past?
    Many would buy regular old cars if they could find one.
    From their era, ridden in as kids.
    If that is all there was, am sure they would not mind.
    Last edited by gr79; 04-29-2018 at 03:22 PM.

  5. #30
    FEP Senior Member OX1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wraithracing View Post
    So Brad . . . How do you really feel about the news.

    I agree that I believe long term its a bad decision. I think the issue is as much the fact that none of the Ford sedans are exciting is the issue as much as anything else. Maybe I am wrong, but I see plenty of Camrys, Accords, Lexus IS, Mercedes C, Nissan Maximums, etc. out on the roads. So someone is buying sedans.
    I have a new Fusion Sport. They run 12.8's with a tune
    (can 60' mid to low 1.8's, if launched well). 325/380 stock
    with AWD.

    Mine has sway bars and PSS 4S tires. Pulls upwards of
    a G according to Harrys Lap Timer ap I got. Very comfy DD
    and a single button firms the shocks/steering nicely and runs out
    the RPM's a bit more.

    Could use a bit more braking for really aggressive driving.
    I just ordered EBC reds and some better rotors for it, will
    see.

    Not sure how much more excitement one would want
    for a family sedan that can be had in the mid to highs 20's
    (for the base, but it really has everything I needed, even heated
    power seats).
    Last edited by OX1; 04-29-2018 at 04:17 PM.
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  6. #31
    FEP Power Member vintageracer's Avatar
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    No Big Deal unless you are a shareholder!

    The smaller FORD SUV's are just CAR'S that sit up nice and high without a trunk-lid. Nothing more! The BIG "Driver" for this all SUV strategy is that WOMEN like sitting up high in their "car". If "Mama" Ain't Happy Nobody Is Happy. In today's world WOMEN make the family "CAR" buying decisions!

    Ford will make the small SUV's get just as good fuel mileage as the current small Ford cars that NOBODY wants to buy. The Asian manufacturer's have once again up-staged the American OEM's when it comes to designing and building passenger cars that AMERICANS will actually buy.

    Hackett has absolutely NOTHING to lose with the "SUV All In" strategy. He will not be the head of Ford Motor Company when this strategy fails and have to answer to anyone just like previous Ford "President's" and most of all their Ford "Marketing" strategy's for the last 10+ years!
    Last edited by vintageracer; 04-30-2018 at 02:35 PM.
    Mike
    Remember, "Drive Fast, Turn Heads, Break Hearts!"

    1995 Ford Powerstroke F350 "Centurion" STRETCHED Crew Cab Dually

    I like "Cut & Coach Built" vehicles!

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  7. #32

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    Quote Originally Posted by vintageracer View Post
    No Big Deal unless you are a shareholder!

    The smaller FORD SUV's are just CAR'S that sit up nice and high without a trunk-lid. Nothing more! The BIG "Driver" for this all SUV strategy is that WOMEN like sitting up high in their "car". If "Mama" ain't happy nobody is happy. In today's world women make the family "CAR" buying decisions!

    Ford will make the small SUV's get just as good fuel mileage as the current small Ford cars that NOBODY wants to buy. The Asian manufacturer's have once again up-staged the American OEM's when it comes to designing and building passenger cars that AMERICANS will actually buy.

    Hackett has absolutely NOTHING to lose with the "SUV All In" strategy. He will not be the head of Ford Motor Company when this strategy fails and have to answer to anyone just like previous Ford "President's" and most of all their Ford "Marketing" strategy's for the last 10+ years!
    I'm going to disagree with your second point. One of the articles I've read makes what I think is a good point in that looking to Japanese brands for small cars is now so in-grained in American culture, it's very difficult to try and change that thinking. I agree 100%. It was the late '70s, early '80s when people started buying Japanese in droves. There is a whole generation of adults out there my age (42) that grew up riding in Japanese brand cars and now wouldn't dream of owning anything else. It's pretty clear when you look at the era our 4-eye cars are from that the Japanese were far better at making small cars. However, I do NOT believe that's still the case. And appealing? Have you looked at a current model Civic or Corolla? They're ugly! Especially the previous gen Civic! I really have to believe people only bought those out of habit. 1,000 out of 1,000 times I'd choose a Focus over one of those. I will admit that this new round of brand loyalty does come with merit. When people started buying those brands, they WERE better. It's not like the previous round with some 1950s drunken family patriarch disowning his son for buying a Pontiac, "This family only buys Oldsmobiles!!". But, this new round of brand loyalty, I believe, no longer has any ground to stand on, modern cars to modern cars. And it even carries over into the magazines! Most of the old-school car magazines have ZERO belief that Ford (or Chrysler or GM) can make a good vehicle. And that bias carries through in what cars get more "intangible" points during comparisons to win or whether they decide to even cover a new Ford that's come out. American cars are not even given a chance to succeed in the press.

    As for your third point, you're absolutely right, he has nothing to lose, and it's disgusting.

    The Fusion Sport is sweet. I just wish it had a manual.
    Brad

    '79 Mercury Zephyr ES 5.0L GT40 EFI T-5 (Mustang LWB)
    '17 Ford Transit Connect Titanium LWB
    '14 Ford Fusion SE Manual

  8. #33
    FEP Power Member vintageracer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZephyrEFI View Post
    I'm going to disagree with your second point.
    Your points of disagreement with my second point is well thought out and well spoken.

    HOWEVER all that being said "My" second point was ALL about what American's will BUY not at all about how good the American car offerings currently are. YES the American OEM's are building some very well designed, performing and reliable CARS. That being said an American OEM "Building A Better CAR" by itself does NOT mean Americans will BUY those cars!

    The American OEM's are have failed miserably are marketing their CARS to at least 3 different GENERATIONS of American consumer's who have experienced, purchased and bought into the superior quality, reliability and design offered by the Asian OEM automotive manufacturer's. Just because an American OEM has produced a CAR that is as "Good or Better" than an offering from an Asian manufacturer is NOT going to change anyone's opinion in those 3 different generations of Americans who have experienced the quality, reliability and design from the Asian OEM manufacturer's that these Same Americans have purchased for the past 40+ years .

    American's by nature have a "HERD" mentality.

    HERD Definition:

    Noun

    1. a large group of animals, especially hoofed mammals, that live, feed, or migrate together or are kept together as livestock. "a herd of elephants" synonyms: drove, flock, pack, fold;

    Verb

    1. (with reference to a group of people or animals) move in a particular direction. "Nick herded me through the baggage claim and into his Jaguar" synonyms: drive, shepherd, guide; round up, gather, collect, corral "we herded the sheep into the pen" crowd, pack, flock; cluster, huddle "we all herded into the room"

    "I've got to do what the HERD is doing as that must be right since everyone else is doing it".

    Car's, politics, social media, consumer goods and more.

    Let's follow the "Herd".

    Ya buddy I "Heard" dat!

    We human's sure are FUNNY ANIMALS!


    OH! By The Way.

    By BUILDING all those "Asian" vehicles in the good ole USA that my friends make those Asian vehicles AMERICAN.

    It's OTAY say's Buckwheat to "Buy American" by way of Asia!
    Last edited by vintageracer; 04-30-2018 at 02:49 PM.
    Mike
    Remember, "Drive Fast, Turn Heads, Break Hearts!"

    1995 Ford Powerstroke F350 "Centurion" STRETCHED Crew Cab Dually

    I like "Cut & Coach Built" vehicles!

    www.musclecardeals.com


  9. #34

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    Quote Originally Posted by vintageracer View Post
    Your points of disagreement with my second point is well thought out and well spoken.

    HOWEVER all that being said "My" second point was ALL about what American's will BUY not at all about how good the American car offerings currently are. YES the American OEM's are building some very well designed, performing and reliable CARS. That being said an American OEM "Building A Better CAR" by itself does NOT mean Americans will BUY those cars!

    The American OEM's are have failed miserably are marketing their CARS to at least 3 different GENERATIONS of American consumer's who have experienced, purchased and bought into the superior quality, reliability and design offered by the Asian OEM automotive manufacturer's. Just because an American OEM has produced a CAR that is as "Good or Better" than an offering from an Asian manufacturer is NOT going to change anyone's opinion in those 3 different generations of Americans who have experienced the quality, reliability and design from the Asian OEM manufacturer's that these Same Americans have purchased for the past 40+ years .

    American's by nature have a "HERD" mentality.

    HERD Definition:

    Noun

    1. a large group of animals, especially hoofed mammals, that live, feed, or migrate together or are kept together as livestock. "a herd of elephants" synonyms: drove, flock, pack, fold;

    Verb

    1. (with reference to a group of people or animals) move in a particular direction. "Nick herded me through the baggage claim and into his Jaguar" synonyms: drive, shepherd, guide; round up, gather, collect, corral "we herded the sheep into the pen" crowd, pack, flock; cluster, huddle "we all herded into the room"

    "I've got to do what the HERD is doing as that must be right since everyone else is doing it".

    Car's, politics, social media, consumer goods and more.

    Let's follow the "Herd".

    Ya buddy I "Heard" dat!

    We human's sure are FUNNY ANIMALS!


    OH! By The Way.

    By BUILDING all those "Asian" vehicles in the good ole USA that my friends make those Asian vehicles AMERICAN.

    It's OTAY say's Buckwheat to "Buy American" by way of Asia!
    Yep, very true.

    Yeah, I have a bunch of friends who just LOVE to think I'm the uninformed one because American cars are often made with a fair amount of foreign content. Meanwhile they're apparently blissfully unaware that Japanese brand cars are STILL being sold by Japanese companies with the vast majority of their workforce and shareholders IN JAPAN!! That US content thing on the window stickers is such bunk! How did the US auto lobby even let that happen?! And how about how much harder the workers in those Japanese brand US factories make life for their fellow Americans in US brand factories by not unionizing? ARGH!
    Brad

    '79 Mercury Zephyr ES 5.0L GT40 EFI T-5 (Mustang LWB)
    '17 Ford Transit Connect Titanium LWB
    '14 Ford Fusion SE Manual

  10. #35
    FEP Power Member vintageracer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZephyrEFI View Post
    Yep, very true. And how about how much harder the workers in those Japanese brand US factories make life for their fellow Americans in US brand factories by not unionizing? ARGH!
    That "Hard" work shows up in the product those AMERICAN WORKERS produce in those Japanese Brand US Factories.

    Hard work is what made America.

    Collective Bargaining is why the US OEM's where on their knee's for survival just 10 short years ago!
    Mike
    Remember, "Drive Fast, Turn Heads, Break Hearts!"

    1995 Ford Powerstroke F350 "Centurion" STRETCHED Crew Cab Dually

    I like "Cut & Coach Built" vehicles!

    www.musclecardeals.com


  11. #36
    FEP Super Member gr79's Avatar
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    Default short people, collective bargoning, plant closures.

    Count-13 drivers, immediate family: 2 gen- bb and millennial. 1 SUV hybrid, 2 import.
    Several pickups, 1 van. 12+ cars. Most are newer models. All but one say no need for McSync and the like.

    One family member switched back to cars.
    Bought a new 2012 Ford Focus. A/C went out 3 weeks after warranty. In summer peak heat. Ford would not fix it.
    Quickly dumped it for a new 2015 Chevy Equinox. Before lease was up, bought a new 2017 Chevy Cruze.
    She is 5'3". Could not see out of the SUV, nor liked the high climb to the drivers seat. Is happy again.

    Factory work, with crazy rotating shift schedules, is very hard on workers, mentally and physically.
    Shortage of workers, high turnover. Doubling of work loads and long overtime shift hours commonplace.
    84 hours a week (7d/12h) is stressful, dangerous, equal to working two 40 hour fast paced jobs.

    Automaker decisions affect 100's of 1000's of workers. Money trail from business to worker, worker to business.
    "Collective bargaining hurts"
    Is a line used by the auto companies when contract time is near. UAW autoworkers is 4 year term.
    Contract/year sales down 4th year, even to 1st, upward 2nd, even to 3rd, then back downward 4th year. Repeat.
    Year 2-3, they brag about paying profit sharing, bonus', record profits. By year 4 they are hurting again.
    Recent: We are going to close plants, sales are down.
    Almost if they offer stale products 3rd to 4th year of contract so they wont sell?
    Companies will demand concessions from the UAW bargaining committee.
    A strike vote is taken about month before contract expires. A union bargaining chip.
    Some vote no being worried about job security. They want/need the money, no home life.
    Some vote yes to improve working conditions (hours, health care cost) and standard of living.

    Its not about money any more. It is about seeking balance of work/family.
    Company spokesman tell same old story to news media "labor costs, productivity not competitive."
    Companies fault. Over spend, over-commit production goals while not retaining workers, rely on scheduled OT.
    Then the layoffs start, usually year 4 if any. Hire again year 1 after new contract.
    'Productivity' figures rise when workers are doing 2 jobs, falls when they are back on 40 hours.

    Big 3 gives tier level supplier unions choice to agree to: a no-strike clause in their contract.
    Or warehouse three months production supply of parts to cover possible vendor strike downtime.
    One strike in the vendor supply chain can cripple production or even shut the main plants down.

    All this is starting downward right now. The cyclical highs and lows of the automotive industry.
    Talk of closing plants is the opening shot as always.
    Then 2018 gas price goes up,m like in 2014, 2010. Truck and SUV sales tank.
    Current UAW four year contracts are up in 2019.
    Ford may be named the lead target for negotiations in 2019 by the UAW.

  12. #37
    FEP Supporter NAVYCAT's Avatar
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    Here is the BIG!!!!! problem in the past and the past ALWAYS comes back is the price of gas............. thats it! remember when it goes up (here in cali) it all ready is but people buy small cars and it will happen again and again and ford will be F-ed again and again. Why is that the Asians are designing better and better sedans they know what will happen.
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  13. #38

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    Quote Originally Posted by NAVYCAT View Post
    Here is the BIG!!!!! problem in the past and the past ALWAYS comes back is the price of gas............. thats it!
    Nope, no worry at all!
    <roll-eyes>

    Don't forget, we have an ************ now in charge of Ford.

    How else can anyone justify an ************ announcing that he's killing off the models at least one year in advance.
    And with the WELL selling Fusion, that *********** was planning to sell it for 2-3 more years (yes, after the announcement).

    And, as I said, only an ************ (who's job greatly involves that he knows/considers/worry's-about oil prices) would think that the gas prices (which have been barely held back) would stay low.


    From:
    https://www.boston.com/cars/car-news...eason-in-years
    =======
    Get ready for the most expensive driving season in years
    Crude oil prices are at the highest level in more than three years and expected to climb higher.
    By ALEX VEIGA AP,
    April 30, 2018

    LOS ANGELES (AP) — Get ready for a little bit more pain at the pump this summer.

    Crude oil prices are at the highest level in more than three years and expected to climb higher, pushing up gasoline prices along the way.

    The U.S. daily national average for regular gasoline is now $2.81 per gallon. That’s up from about $2.39 per gallon a year ago, according to Oil Price Information Service. And across the U.S., 13 percent of gas stations are charging $3 per gallon or more, AAA said last week.

    “This will be the most expensive driving season since 2014,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for Oil Price Information Service.

    The price of U.S. crude oil has been on a mostly steady incline since last June and last week hit $68.64, the highest since December 2014. Benchmark U.S. crude closed Friday at $68.10. Oil prices near $70 shouldn’t put the brakes on economic growth, however. While they’re boosting costs for some sectors of the economy, the energy sector and related industries have more money to spend on equipment and workers.

    But higher oil prices are certainly an inconvenience for drivers, especially those with lower incomes.

    “The good news is, both at the global level and the U.S. level, this is occurring at a time when growth is fairly robust,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Markit. “But consumers as whole will be hurt, mostly because gasoline prices are going up.”

    Kevin Lanke, a motion picture lighting technician in Redondo Beach, California, says he’s now paying about $3.39 per gallon to fill up the 25-gallon tank in his 2000 Land Cruiser SUV. That’s about 20 cents more per gallon than a couple of months ago.

    “I would fill up my car and it would be $52 or $53,” said Lanke, 51. “Now it’s in the mid $60s for the same amount of gas.”

    Lanke keeps the recent increase in perspective, noting that three years ago he and his fellow Californians were paying over $4 per gallon. But he’s already weighing his options, saying if gas goes to $4 a gallon he’ll buy a more fuel-efficient car to use as his main ride and drive the Land Cruiser only when he needs it.

    Several factors have helped drive oil prices higher. A wave of global economic growth has driven up demand for oil. At the same time, production cutbacks initiated by OPEC last year have helped whittle down oil supplies.

    In the U.S., oil supplies were running 1.1 million barrels lower at the start of this summer’s driving season, which runs from April through September, than a year ago, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

    That has amplified the typical increase in gas prices seen this time of year. Pump prices normally rise as demand increases from families going on vacation and taking to the highways on road trips. Already, U.S. consumer demand for gasoline hit a record high for the month of April, according to the EIA.

    Drivers in Western states such as California, Oregon, Washington, as well as Alaska, Hawaii, Connecticut and Pennsylvania, are paying the most at the pump. The average retail price in those states is running from $2.95 to $3.61 per gallon.

    Average retail gasoline prices are lowest in a swath of mostly East Coast states, including Florida, New Hampshire, Delaware and Georgia. They’re ranging from $2.68 to $2.80 per gallon.

    Still, prices remain well off from 2008, when crude oil prices jumped above $130 per barrel and average retail gas prices surged to an all-time high of $4.11 per gallon.

    “People forget very, very quickly,” Kloza said, noting that the average U.S. gasoline price remains well below where they stood five years ago at $3.60 per gallon.

    “We’re seeing a higher price environment… but I don’t think we’re goig to look at really apocalyptic numbers,” he said.

    The EIA projects that the U.S. retail price for regular gasoline will average $2.74 per gallon this summer, up from an average of $2.41 per gallon a year earlier. Gas prices to rise each spring through Memorial Day and slowly decline as the summer goes along.

    For all of 2018, the agency expects that the national retail price for all grades of gasoline will average $2.76 a gallon. That would translate into an additional $190 spent on fuel by the average U.S. household this year compared to last, the agency said.

    “At the higher income levels, this won’t really have much of an effect,” said Behravesh. “But it’s a bigger deal for lower-income families, because a bigger share of their budgets goes to things like gasoline.”

    In broader economic terms, the rise in oil and gasoline prices will help crude producers in states like Texas and North Dakota and will likely boost capital spending industrywide. Spending by oil companies fell sharply as oil plunged below $30 a barrel in 2016, dragging on U.S. economic growth.

    Industries that rely heavily on fuel, such as shipping companies, airlines, vehicle fleet operators and other transportation companies, are seeing rising costs, which eventually will be passed on to consumers. Diesel fuel hit its highest national average price in more than three years over the weekend at about $3.06 per gallon. American Airlines said it spent $412 million more on fuel in the recent first quarter than in the year-ago period.

    At current levels, U.S. crude oil prices won’t noticeably hamper the economy, said Behravesh.

    “You would have to get up into the $90-$100 range for it to really have a big impact on growth,” he said. “At these levels, it may shave off a tenth of a percentage point off global growth.”

    One reason oil likely won’t get to that level is the emergence of the U.S. as a major global oil producer. Higher prices encourage U.S. oil companies to crank up output.

    “That rise in U.S. production and further rises in U.S. production will put a cap or a damper eventually on higher oil prices,” Behravesh said.
    =======




    From:
    http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/01/inve...ump/index.html
    ==================
    Oil markets brace for Trump to kill Iran deal
    by Matt Egan May 1, 2018
    What uncertainty over Iran deal means for oil
    The Iran nuclear deal may be doomed, at least if you believe the global oil market.

    Oil prices have surged partly because of mounting expectations that President Trump will kill the 2015 agreement, which allowed Iran to export more crude. Trump must decide by May 12 whether to re-impose sanctions on the OPEC nation.

    Brent crude, the global benchmark, briefly soared above $75 a barrel on Monday after Israel leveled new nuclear allegations against Iran.

    Bringing back sanctions on Iran could knock out as much as 1 million barrels per day of crude supply, dealing a blow to increasingly fragile energy markets.

    "There will be a significant disruption," said Michael Wittner, global head of oil research at Societe Generale.

    "The market is assuming that oil sanctions will snap back onto Iran," he said.

    Trump said on Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's speech on Iran helps show he's "100% right" about the Iranian nuclear agreement, which was signed by former President Barack Obama.

    "We'll see what happens," Trump said about his decision on the Iran deal. "I'm not telling you what I'm doing, but a lot of people think they know."

    Related: Iran deal: Who loses if Trump brings back sanctions

    The oil market certainly thinks it knows. The price of Brent crude has soared 7% this year, and the US benchmark has soared 8% to nearly $69 a barrel for the first time since late 2014. Oil prices have been lifted by concerns about the fate of the Iran deal as well as strong demand and supply cuts by OPEC and Russia.

    "The Iranian nuclear deal is dead in the water and a Trump torpedo is fast approaching," Stephen Brennock, oil analyst at brokerage firm PVM Oil Associates, wrote to clients late last week.
    iran oil prices trump

    Under the deal, Iran agreed to limits on its nuclear activities, including bans on enrichment at key facilities. In exchange, sanctions were lifted in early 2016, freeing Iran to quickly boost its oil production by about 1 million barrels per day. Iran found eager customers for its crude in Europe, Japan, India and South Korea.

    It's "now looking increasingly likely" that Trump will not renew the waiver on Iranian sanctions by May 12, according to energy research firm FGE.

    Up to 1 million barrels at risk

    If the sanctions are restored, FGE estimates that Iran's output could be slashed by 250,000 to 500,000 barrels per day by the end of 2018. That figure would rise to 500,000 to 1 million per day through 2019.

    But energy analysts are not certain that all of Iran's oil production growth is at risk. That's because France and other countries are urging Trump not to kill the nuclear deal.

    While the European Union put a 100% embargo on Iranian crude oil imports when sanctions were imposed in 2012, Wittner doesn't think the EU will necessarily go along if Trump restores sanctions.

    Likewise, China has a voracious appetite for oil and may not wish to do Trump any favors in the midst of its trade spat with the United States, Wittner said.

    Other American allies, including India, Japan and South Korea, are expected to cut Iran off.

    Will prices spike?

    Even though imposing sanctions on Iran would disrupt the oil market, the price impact may not be that dramatic considering how far prices have already risen.

    "I don't think you should expect an acute spike given the fact that it's already been pretty well telegraphed," said Brian Kessens, a portfolio manager at energy investment firm Tortoise Capital.

    Wittner said that about half of the impact from the Iran deal collapsing has been priced in. He anticipates crude oil could jump another $5 per barrel once the news is confirmed.

    Of course, that means oil prices could drop sharply if Trump decides to keep the Iranian deal intact.

    Related: Why Exxon isn't enjoying America's big oil party

    One thing that could give Trump pause: It's a precarious time to put Iran back into the penalty box.

    First, demand for oil is very strong thanks to the healthy world economy. Global oil demand grew during the first three months of 2018 at the fastest pace in nearly eight years, according to Goldman Sachs.

    Another problem: OPEC and Russia have teamed up to boost prices by slashing production.

    Trump attacked OPEC last month for higher prices, even though his own threats to the Iran deal have also played a role.

    Trump has also threatened to hit Venezuela with oil sanctions that would further slash the OPEC nation's crumbling output.

    Who will step up?

    If no one steps in to fill the void left by Iran, FGE warns that the gap between supply and demand could shrink to the tightest level since 2013, when oil prices were above $100 a barrel.

    It's possible the United States could step up by boosting exports. However, US output is already at record highs and it would take time to ramp up further. And pipelines in the Permian Basin, the prolific shale oil field in West Texas, are nearing full capacity.

    Analysts said that Saudi Arabia is one of the only major countries that has the flexibility to make up for the loss of Iranian crude. Yet the Saudis have not signaled a desire to disrupt a strategy that has helped lift prices, and oil revenue.

    "It's an open question whether or not Saudi Arabia would react," Wittner said.
    CNNMoney (New York) First published May 1, 2018: 3:18 PM ET
    ==================
    Last edited by stangPlus2Birds; 05-02-2018 at 01:06 AM.

  14. #39
    FEP Super Member gr79's Avatar
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    Pay more to go same distance.
    Or pay same to go less distance.
    I look at gas prices like a virtual fuel mileage gain or cut.
    Cost per mile changes as if car got 20, 10, or 5 mpg.

    1.00/gal x 10 gal @ 20 mpg = 200 miles for 10.00- (5.00 per 100 miles)
    1.00/gal x 10 gal @ 10 mpg = 200 miles for 20.00 (10.00 per 100 miles)
    1.00/gal x 10 gal @ 5 mpg = 200 miles for 40.00 (20.00 per 100 miles)

    2.00/gal x 10 gal @ 20 mpg = 200 miles for 20.00 (10.00 per 100 miles)
    Same cost as when gas was 1.00 and car got 10 mpg.

    4.00/gal x 10 gal @ 20 mpg = 200 miles for 40.00 (20.00 per 100 miles)
    Same cost as when gas was 1.00 and car got 5 mpg.
    Same cost as when gas was 2.00 and car got 10 mpg.

  15. #40
    FEP Power Member vintageracer's Avatar
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    In California?

    Complain to "Governor Moonbeam" about your recent $0.12/gallon GAS TAX INCREASE.

    That along with all the other fee and tax increases might just keep the state solvent!
    Mike
    Remember, "Drive Fast, Turn Heads, Break Hearts!"

    1995 Ford Powerstroke F350 "Centurion" STRETCHED Crew Cab Dually

    I like "Cut & Coach Built" vehicles!

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  16. #41
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    I look at it this way. I got a British motorcycle and love it. Certain British automakers/cars I have always admired. But Ford quitting North America, I quit Ford. Sure I will still have my fox and probably an old F-series. But times are changing and I’m looking forward to a new Jaguar.

  17. #42
    FEP Super Member gr79's Avatar
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    Drove niece's 2017 white Challenger R/T Hemi automatic for the first time today.
    What a nice car. Felt simple familiar as my Mustang, except for push button start.
    She had seat height set high in position, real close to what the Mustang is like.
    Did not feel tubbed or closed in at any time.

    Had the big video display, but that can be turned off. Factory Alpine stereo was turned off during drive.
    No round knob gearshift crap. The handle lit up red showing gear. Also had 'paddle' shift buttons on back of wheel.
    Nice simple cluster. Round speedo, tach, digital speed in middle. That is all one needs.
    Real nice steering wheel grip feel. Visibility fine. Dash was a long way to w/s. A pillar was not intrusive at all.
    Seats were great. Car had overall solid feel.

    8 speed trans shifted smoothly. Turned onto main road and quickly ran thru 4 gears, wot, normal mode, 5 sec to ??mph.
    375 hp is plenty to have fun with.
    In sport mode, slowing down for a turn back into sub, the trans downshifted itself at higher rpm like a manual.
    Inside, exhaust note had a rumble at idle and medium deep sound wot. Like the old days.
    No popping or harsh rasp at any time, unlike others.

    Could see out the back window like normal, though not as good as a hatchback. Had a good backup camera.
    Having clean body lines, did not feel stupid driving it.
    Sorry, but Challenger is my pick if buying a newer car. Classic muscle car look, newer car tech.
    Last edited by gr79; 05-05-2018 at 01:19 AM.

  18. #43

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    I don't know, man.... the Challenger's a pretty old design. Considerably older than any of the car designs Ford get so much criticism for they decided to give up on them altogether. Jus' sayin'
    Brad

    '79 Mercury Zephyr ES 5.0L GT40 EFI T-5 (Mustang LWB)
    '17 Ford Transit Connect Titanium LWB
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  19. #44
    FEP Super Member gr79's Avatar
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    Mustang traditionally was for all sexes, ages with many ways to option for personality.

    Niece had 2009 Mustang prior. Dumped it. Had electrical glitches.

    No apparent changes is why i like Challengers. They plainly mimic the old ones, unlike mustang/camaro.
    No radical style changes seen, similar to fox Mustang/Capri, lots of other older cars.
    Mostly under the skin, long chassis runs like old VW bug, Ford Ranger, Crown Vic, others, used to do.
    Gee can get a v6 or 800 hp in same body style. Later on they will be desired for mods like ours.
    The Demon looks like a plain v6 car modded. Plain Mustang v6 looks like a Shelby. Never had a childhood.

    Long production run- Less chance of obsoletion, good parts interchange, and parts availability sort and long term.
    Not one to go with style for the sake of it, nor like over sculptured, ricer like glitz to attract attention.
    Do not like big mouth grills or front 'faces' the make the mirrors look like ears. Goofy. Pokemons.
    The new Vettes, Ford GT, look like crap. Over done like others mentioned. Too many exotic variations.
    If these are your bag, go for it more power to you. I pass on these at car shows to see common cars.

    Was born into a GM employee family, have driven Ford for a long time, and worked for them.
    FCA just seems to carry on with more normal looking transportation choices, like GM and Ford used to.
    Many nice products like 2005 T-Bird, SSR, HHR, PT Cruiser, new Dart, new Beetle, got overlooked.
    Lots of times, products that are not heavily advertised, marketed, are the better ones.
    They don't need it to sell, but are cut because the others are not selling paying off prod. investment.
    Last edited by gr79; 05-05-2018 at 03:43 PM.

  20. #45
    FEP Super Member gr79's Avatar
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    Been in the auto manufacturing business for many years. Big 3, tiers, aftermarket. Seen a lot.
    Would really hesitate to buy any used car or even truck from the last 5 years or more that are out of full warranty.
    Plants cannot keep or find enough workers to keep lines running smooth.
    To endure the mega hours required to make production, covering 2+ workstations, due to worker shortages
    Lines do not slow down when they should. Mgmt wants numbers. Workers are 'bodies' period.
    The products and components are very complex. Mostly electrical parts. Wiring, sensors, circuit boards.
    Robots, lines etc constantly shut down.
    Breakdown, malfunction or commonly shut down due to ok sensor detects out of qc variation.
    One station stops, all the others eventually do. Go Go Go no backups, buffers. Lean mfg is the game.
    Takes much longer than in the past to restart. Call the techs. Come in with laptops to troubleshoot data records, etc.
    Usually electrically, computer, related again. Everything has to function near perfectly at the same time. All or nothing.
    Lots of parts get repaired/reworked due to production expense already put into them.
    May affect long term reliability. Seen many parts get dropped and put back into production when no one is looking.
    Get caught doing anything wrong and you are out the door. Then go somewhere else, same thing.
    May pass tests now so product can get out the door (money), but later?
    Dealer and local shop techs facing challenges repairing cars affordably.
    Last edited by gr79; 05-05-2018 at 04:21 PM.

  21. #46
    FEP Power Member vintageracer's Avatar
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    Gee I guess all those reasons or problems depending on your point of view that you state above are why my wife's made in America 2014 Nissan Pathfinder has been the most reliable and trouble-free vehicle she has ever owned!

    4 years and almost 60K miles with never an issue or problem!
    Mike
    Remember, "Drive Fast, Turn Heads, Break Hearts!"

    1995 Ford Powerstroke F350 "Centurion" STRETCHED Crew Cab Dually

    I like "Cut & Coach Built" vehicles!

    www.musclecardeals.com


  22. #47
    FEP Super Member gr79's Avatar
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    Default eggs in one basket, then supplier fire

    Cost Ford 15000 trucks per week and lost profits? Factoring in something that does not exist?
    What mgmt teams- Ford and Meridian- losers. Live and learn real numbers again.
    Mgmt pushing production numbers likely caused the fire.
    Running plant and workers at too fast of a pace is unsafe. Cause of fire unknown. Yah right. They know.

    http://www.autonews.com/article/2018...-supplier-fire

    This is one example where JIT type of operations backfires big time financially. Now and later on.
    They are going to crack the whip on employees once production restarts.
    OT 12 hour shifts, 7 days. Kill em. Workers will pay the price again for a while, no choice.
    Try to make up 'lost' production. Cant lose what you never had. Why not pick up where left off?
    What is gone is gone. They wont eat the loss. Will pass cost on to consumers as always.

    In the old days, factories would not stop, working at a moderate pace. Steady as she goes.
    Now they push the limit and break/stop all the time. (called 'productivity', 'lean manufacturing').
    Like rush hour traffic. They can stick the Kizan up their kazoo.
    Last edited by gr79; 05-10-2018 at 02:22 AM.

  23. #48
    FEP Super Member gr79's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZephyrEFI View Post
    https://jalopnik.com/ford-will-phase...ica-1825544784

    Stupid Stupid STUPID!! Can we think any more short term?! Remember 2008, you stupid, moronic mother#$%&ers??!! IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN. GAS PRICES WILL GO UP!! And environmental laws WILL come back to sanity! There's no way around it!! And you are going to find yourselves with nothing anyone wants, and government fines for not meeting fuel economy regs up the ass! I want this company to survive long term, but apparently you're not interested in that. Even in the meantime, NOT EVERYONE WANTS A #$%&ING TRUCK! I don't even want your vaguely truckified Focus! In fact, I'd take an actual truck over one of those stupid things. At least it knows what it is!

    I used to lease new Ford every couple of years, but that's over. Congratulations, Hackett. You're now officially stupider than Sergio Marchionne.
    How right you were.
    Only took a month to prove that.
    Oil prices going north quickly.
    Thanks to, well we know.
    Same scenario getting repeated, started with 70's embargo crap.
    Consumer prices due to transporting goods should have adjusted down when gas was cheaper but did not.
    Passed no savings on to consumer. Passed on corporate tax cut savings, lower prices, will disappear.
    Wasted the money on new tech, future unrealistic dream programs. Got in debt with new infrastructure.
    Consumer prices will go up quickly, excuse again blaming high fuel costs for transportation, materials.
    Or will companies, with windfall profits from that stretch, eat the increase? Most won't.
    Only works one way nowadays. They deserve what happens to them.
    No soup for you (hourly wage raises). Stagnation continues on. The round of wage concessions, layoffs, begins.
    Automaker contract time coming soon. The posturing. Repeat every 4 years.
    Bonus' for corporate as usual.
    Last edited by gr79; 05-17-2018 at 04:07 PM.

  24. #49

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    The sooner the better. And the worse the better. If that makes sense. Maybe he'll change his stupid, stupid mind then. They've already developed the next generation Fiesta and Focus for Europe. There's no money they need to spend on that. Import them from Europe if you have to.
    Brad

    '79 Mercury Zephyr ES 5.0L GT40 EFI T-5 (Mustang LWB)
    '17 Ford Transit Connect Titanium LWB
    '14 Ford Fusion SE Manual

  25. #50

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    I wrote a letter to Ford about this, for all the difference it's going to make.
    Brad

    '79 Mercury Zephyr ES 5.0L GT40 EFI T-5 (Mustang LWB)
    '17 Ford Transit Connect Titanium LWB
    '14 Ford Fusion SE Manual

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